The battle for the 2012 Republican nomination for president is the most unpredictable in decades with even the political experts in a state of confusion. The situation is so fluid that it can and does change dramatically in a few days. For example, just over the weekend of May 14 and 15, the entire outlook changed substantially because Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race. Donald Trump’s departure was anticipated and probably does not have any impact but the withdrawal of Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, has profound implications for the nomination’s fight. Also, during the same weekend, Newt Gingrich, an announced candidate, who was a former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, self destructed in an interview with David Gregory on Meet the Press, probably ending his role as a serious candidate. The significance of these events will be analyzed later in this article.
The Current Candidates
As of the middle of May, four men are definitely in the hunt for the Republican nomination – Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty. Ron Paul, Congressman from Texas, is a libertarian who believes in the legalization of marijuana and heroine and of prostitution. Nobody believes he will have an impact in the race. Newt Gingrich is thought to be very smart and was briefly considered to be a serious candidate. But his outrageous attacks on President Obama, calling him a food stamp president combined with his terrible performance on Meet the Press have apparently terminated the viability of his candidacy. In his Meet the Press interview with David Gregory, Mr. Gingrich referred to the Medicare portion of Paul Ryan’s budget proposal as “right-wing social engineering”. He subsequently recanted his statement and apologized to Paul Ryan stating that he would vote for the Ryan budget.